Will Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy be a central minister in 2013?
Or will he continue as chief minister up to 2016?
These are two contradictory possibilities.
Both are very strong.
One of these will be strengthened by various factors.
No doubt,Piravom by-election result will be a major factor.
Here we have to consider history also.
History some times repeats.
Numbers play an important role in the repetition and and important events.
Let us examine a few cases.
There were four assembly elections in Kerala at an interval of 10 years(1957,67,77,87).
EMS was chief minister in 1957 and 1967.
EMS ministry was dismissed in 1959.
EMS ministry resigned in 1969.
There were 5 Lok Sabha elections at an interval of 9 years(1962,71,80,89,98).
BJP was formed in 1980.
It supported the VP Singh government in 1989.
BJP formed its own coalition government at the centre in 1998.
Vajpayee and Advani first became ministers in 1977.
In 2004 the Vajpayee government resigned-that is after 27 years(2+7=9).
In three assembly elections held at an interval of ten years(1991,2001,2011) the UDF came in power.
There were two Chief Ministers in the first two cases.
If history repeats,oommen Chandy will have to resign and go to the centre.
Karunakaran,Antony and Oommen Chandy:-
Karunakaran and Antony first became CM in 1977.
Changes occurred after 18 years(1+8=9).
Karunakaran resigned as chief minister in 1995.
He became a central minister in 1995.
Antony was sworn in as the new chief minister.
After 9 years-in 2004-Antony resigned as CM and became a central minister.
Oommen Chandy was the next CM.
If history repeats Oommen Chandy will resign as CM and be a central minister in 2013.
Achutha Menon and oommen Chandy:-
The birth number of Achutha Menon was 4.
The birth number of Oommen Chandy is 4.
Menon was the 4th chief minister of Kerala.
Chandy is the 4th Congress leader who became CM in Kerala.
It was the ministry of Achutha Menon that first completed the full term in Kerala.
The ministry was in the 4th Assembly.
Oommen Chandy first became MLA in the 4th Assembly.
Oommen Chandy is now CM in the 13th Assembly(1+3=4).
If the history of Achutha Menon repeats,Chandy will be CM till 2016..
It may be noted that lucky 13 Vajpayee completed full term of ministry in the 13th Lok Sabha.
Similarly,lucky 13 Oommen Chandy is likely to complete full term of his ministry in the 13th Assembly.